The Roaring Twenties

"I wish there was a way to know you're in the good old days before you've actually left them," said wistful  Andy Bernard in the series finale of the Amercian version of “The Office”. This much ‘memed’ (we believe that’s the correct colloquial parlance of the 21st Century, we are catching up) and likely off-the-cuff lament for times gone by has securely cemented itself within the modern pop culture phenomenon of ‘doomerism’, this idea that the good times have slipped away, and nobody can fully understand as to why. BUT it also triggered some deeper thought for this week's blog offering. What if this perspective is all wrong? What if we are so addicted to the comfort of negativity that it’s become almost performative and expected? What if the data provides a contrarian viewpoint? To counter the argument that a contrarian viewpoint in a difficult economy is simply gaslighting by any other name, we look at the data on housing and ask ourselves: are we, like Andy Bernard, unaware that we are still in the good old days?

Let’s start with something that sounds uncomfortably optimistic for many readers: analysts at Citi, one of the world’s largest investment banks, have noted early “green shoots” in the UK housing market, indicating that key indicators which had softened through late 2025 and the seasonal slowdown may be showing tentative signs of stabilising. These “green shoots” aren’t dramatic; they’re not a 2005-style boom, but they matter precisely because they contradict the narrative that the UK market is stagnation personified. When a bank that built its reputation on data-driven macro insights sees fragility giving way to softness that could turn into momentum, it’s worth taking seriously. If we take this signal at face value, then one could argue that we are at least flirting with the early phases of recovery, not collapse. It’s a reminder that data often moves before sentiment (and sentiment, in turn, drives headlines). A market that recovers quickly, without any state-level intervention anticipated, i.e., stimulus on the buy or sell side (which, as free-market fans, we are not the biggest fans of), is a strong market that doesn’t necessarily fit the narrative that the glory days of housing are in the rear-view mirror.

Often, when commentators speak of a housing “crisis”, they inadvertently paint the whole country with one brush. Yet the data shows substantial regional divergence, another reason to question a negative outlook. Recent analysis from property portal Rightmove forecasts modest growth in UK house prices in 2026, with asking prices expected to rise around 2% over the year, driven by improved affordability, wage growth outpacing house price increases, and lower mortgage rates. Moreover, lower-priced regions, such as northern England and Wales, are expected to outperform higher-priced southern markets as demand shifts to more affordable areas. This divergence is crucial. It tells us that one dystopian narrative, “housing opportunity is dead everywhere”, simply doesn’t align with reality. Instead, parts of the UK market show signs of resilience and actual activity.

There’s a psychological element at play here, too. We have cultural mechanisms that tend to amplify negative narratives, loss aversion, confirmation bias, and a media environment where bad news feels more newsworthy than stability. But here’s the thing: narratives shape behaviour, and a dominant doomer frame can become self-fulfilling. Buyers delay purchases “because it’s going to be cheaper later,” sellers hold back listings, developers pause projects, all because everyone expects the worst. That’s not data-driven analysis; that’s a self-reinforcing belief. Yet hard data ranging from rising enquiries and green slices of market recovery to regional growth forecasts and affordability dynamics suggests a far more nuanced market. Not everything is booming, but there are clear pockets of momentum, resilience, and emerging opportunity that belie the idea that “the good times are definitely over.”

So, in terms of the property market at least, are we still in “the good old days of the roaring 20s?”

Maybe. While challenges persist, the data increasingly supports a view that the UK housing market is transitioning from contraction to consolidation, with selective areas showing early signs of renewed momentum. We will only realise in hindsight that late 2025 and early 2026 were transitional moments of stability, renewed activity, and evolving opportunity in the UK housing market. Andy Bernard might tell us we’re too close to see it. But if we let data rather than narrative guide our thinking, we might conclude that doomism has been more dramatic than actual market signals warrant, at least for now. Maybe we’re not in the roaring boom of the early 1920s. But maybe, just maybe, we’re in a period of measured recovery, adjustment, and quiet resilience that future observers will look back on fondly not with wistful regret, but with recognition that the market was righting itself, quietly and fundamentally.

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